It’s time for another edition of the Badgers mailbag. Topics this week include how quarterbacks perform in their third year as a starter, whether Wisconsin might utilize empty backfield sets next season, what to expect from the wide receiver corps, which football and basketball transfer additions will have the greatest impact, in-state football recruiting and running back Braelon Allen’s workload.
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(Note: Submitted questions have been edited for clarity.)
Are there examples of QBs who have made a huge jump in their third year of being a starter? Graham Mertz has been not even adequate the last two years, so it’s hard to believe we can compete for the Big Ten without a revelation at QB. His play has made me pine for the days of (Joel) Stave, even (Alex) Hornibrook.
Gordie M.
I’m going to focus exclusively on Wisconsin quarterbacks here. Since 1991, six different Badgers quarterbacks have started for at least three seasons, excluding Graham Mertz: Darrell Bevell (1992-95), Mike Samuel (1996-98), Brooks Bollinger (1999-2002), John Stocco (2004-06), Joel Stave (2012-15) and Alex Hornibrook (2016-18).
Bevell’s second season as a starter in 1993 obviously was a magical one, as he led Wisconsin to its first Rose Bowl victory. Bevell completed 67.8 percent of his passes for 2,390 yards with 19 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Wisconsin wasn’t as good the following season and finished 8-3-1 with a Hall of Fame Bowl victory against Duke. Bevell’s numbers took a dip as well. He completed 60.2 percent of his passes for 1,544 yards with 17 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.
Samuel’s numbers were never particularly good, but he thankfully had tailback Ron Dayne to rely on. In his second year as a starter in 1997, Samuel completed 55.5 percent of his passes for 1,896 yards with eight touchdowns and 13 interceptions. He didn’t throw as much in 1998 while Dayne ran roughshod and completed 52.3 percent of his passes for 1,175 yards with six touchdowns and four interceptions. I suppose you could call that progress since he significantly cut down on turnovers, but I’d imagine Badgers fans are looking for a lot more out of Mertz (Samuel did run for 10 touchdowns in his third year as a starter).
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Stocco’s second year as a starter was slightly better than his third year. During Year 2 in 2005, he completed 60.1 percent of his passes for 2,920 yards with 21 touchdowns and nine interceptions. In 2006, Stocco completed 59.0 percent of his passes for 2,185 yards with 17 touchdowns and six picks.
Bollinger had his lowest pass efficiency rating in his third year as a starter in 2001, when he completed a career-low 51.4 percent of his passes for six touchdowns and four interceptions. But he did bounce back with a strong senior season in 2002, in which threw for a career-high 1,758 yards with 14 touchdowns and four interceptions.
Stave’s career is marked by a bizarre junior season in which head coach Gary Andersen picked Tanner McEvoy to be the starter in 2014 despite the evidence that showed Stave was the much better passer. Stave then lost his confidence and couldn’t accurately throw a football for weeks. Stave still remarkably returned to be the starter for most of the season, but he threw nine touchdowns and 10 interceptions. His best season came as a sophomore in 2013 when he threw 22 touchdowns and 13 picks. Stave remained the starter as a senior under Paul Chryst but couldn’t replicate the success he had as a sophomore.
And then there is Hornibrook, whose third year as a starter in 2018 was largely considered a disappointment one season after he threw 25 touchdowns and earned Orange Bowl MVP honors. Hornibrook’s completion percentage, passing yards, yards per attempt and touchdowns decreased in his third year starting, while his interception rate went way up.
All this is to point out that there is no scientific way of gauging whether a quarterback in his third year as a starter will be significantly better. Most of the Badgers’ three-plus-year starters have somehow been not been as good that season. None of this means Mertz won’t be able to take an important step forward, particularly under a new offensive coordinator who wants to create a more dynamic passing attack. But the history is interesting.
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With (new offensive coordinator) Bobby Engram bringing some NFL-inspired ideas to the offense and some good WR depth, will we see more empty backfield formations this season? And if so, is there concern about Mertz facing additional pressure with less pass protection?
Matt H.
I would not be surprised if we saw a slight uptick in the number of empty sets simply because of the ways in which Engram wants to take advantage of his playmakers. He showed a willingness during spring practice to put multiple receivers, as well as tight ends and running backs, in different spots to be viable pass-catching threats. Having said that, I don’t expect some drastic shift next season.
According to Pro Football Focus, the Badgers ran a total of 19 plays last season out of an empty set with at least one running back and one tight end on the field. That number ranked 12th in the Big Ten and 92nd nationally. As you mention, the key to excelling out of an empty set will be what happens when quarterback Graham Mertz is under pressure.
The coaching staff has spent a lot of time working with him on being a better decision maker — not forcing a home run throw down the field into coverage when he could find a check down, as well as having better ball location and timing in general. If the staff has trust in the plan and in Mertz’s ability to execute, then it shouldn’t be a major issue so long as he is able to get the ball out quickly and be decisive.
Can you convince me that the receivers will actually be any better than recent years? Seems like a lot of optimism, but there have always been guys with talent that for whatever reason don’t produce at a high level. Quintez Cephus has been the exception, but we’ve heard about how talented certain receivers are in the past and they’ve never been consistent. What’s different about Chimere Dike, Skyler Bell and Markus Allen?
Nick R.
I am not going to try to convince you that this Wisconsin receiver corps will be significantly better than what we’ve seen in many recent seasons. There is plenty of potential with the three you mentioned, as well as UCLA transfer Keontez Lewis. But that group has to show it on the field — and not just in spring practice.
I do think Chimere Dike will be a better, more consistent topline guy than the Badgers have had since 2019. He has all the tools to thrive — intelligence, precise route running, good body control and hands, athleticism, a great relationship with his quarterback — and carved up the defense in the spring (again, not a foolproof indicator, but still telling). Without receivers Danny Davis and Kendric Pryor, as well as tight end Jake Ferguson, he’ll be the focal point of the passing attack.
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Beyond Dike, the receivers have many questions to answer. Allen has three career catches, Bell has one and Lewis none. Bell looks like the No. 2 wide receiver and brings good play strength but hasn’t done it in a game beyond 14 snaps in the Las Vegas Bowl. Receivers coach Alvis Whitted likes Lewis’ big body, versatility and short-area quickness. Allen came on strong late in the spring but was up and down early.
“He’s continuing to figure it out,” Whitted said. “Had great success in the bowl game, in the bowl prep. But for Markus, it’s really just about continuing to have confidence. And he’s a big kid that can run, can be physical. He’s still right there as well. But that’s just it. The opportunities are there. It’s about the guys that are going to continue to take advantage of them.”
Last season, Davis, Pryor and Dike combined for 83 catches for 1,166 yards and six touchdowns. In 2019, Cephus alone caught 59 passes for 901 yards and seven touchdowns. I don’t see Dike surpassing what Cephus did, but I can see the top three receivers producing at a better clip than the Badgers’ best trio did last season. That would be a decent start.
Which football and basketball transfer addition makes the biggest impact this season and why?
CJ H.
For basketball, I’m going with Max Klesmit, a 6-foot-3 guard from Neenah, Wis., who played his first two college seasons at Wofford before transferring to Wisconsin this offseason. He’ll immediately be able to come in and fill some of the scoring void left behind by guards Brad Davison and Johnny Davis.
Klesmit started all 31 games for Wofford, was a third-team All-Southern Conference selection and finished second on the team in scoring at 14.9 points per game. He shot 83.7 percent from the free throw line and led the team with 68 made 3-pointers. He’s also not afraid to take a big shot at a critical juncture, which he demonstrated by making the game-winning layup that advanced Wofford to the Southern Conference tournament semifinals in March.
I do like the pickup of Green Bay transfer Kamari McGee, but he figures to be more of a backup point guard to starter Chucky Hepburn.
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“I feel like I am an unselfish player who loves to make his teammates better and who can score if the team needs a bucket,” McGee told me after he committed to the Badgers. “I feel like me personally, I am an outstanding defender.”
For football, I’m taking what may be considered a bit of a wild card here with kicker Vito Calvaruso. Sure, I was impressed with cornerback Jay Shaw and think he’ll be a starter. But the Badgers also seem to have developed some pretty good depth at that position. I think Calvaruso will wind up being Wisconsin’s kicker and kickoff specialist.
We already know he was one of the best kickoff specialists in the country at Arkansas last season. If he can lock up the kicking job over Nate Van Zelst and be more consistent, he could be a huge difference-maker for Wisconsin next season. It’s a rare weapon to have someone who can bury 50-yard or even 60-yard field goals, which can make all the difference in a low-scoring, one-possession November game.
What happened to Wisconsin high school football? 247Sports has NO players listed as top 2023 football recruits in Wisconsin. Only two listed for 2024. I know you don’t work for 247Sports, but do you think this is a mistake or an oversight, or has HS football fallen off that much in the state? A wall around the state to keep the best players in-state won’t be worth a hill of beans if the talent pool is low.
John E.
I’ll start by saying that nothing is significantly wrong with Wisconsin high school football. These things are cyclical, and not every year is going to produce a standout crop of players in a state that may generally only have 10 or 15 Power 5 scholarship-type players in a great year.
The state of Wisconsin had a banner year with its 2022 recruiting class. Before Braelon Allen reclassified into the 2021 class, Wisconsin had six players ranked in the Top247, even though it had never before generated more than two such players (Allen’s reclassification ultimately gave the state three Top247 players in 2021 and five in 2022). Of course, that uniquely-acclaimed class only meant more recruiting competition, and three players — Billy Schrauth (Notre Dame), Carson Hinzman (Ohio State) and Jerry Cross (Penn State) — ended up signing with out-of-state schools.
They won’t all be like 2022, and they won’t all be like 2023, which at this juncture features just one in-state player with a Wisconsin scholarship offer (Milwaukee running back Nate White). To base the success of an in-state class entirely on whether players are in the Top247 probably is a bit short-sighted. Wisconsin didn’t have a single Top247 in-state prospect in 2010, 2015, 2018 or 2019. The lone Top247 player in 2014, offensive lineman Jaden Gault, never played a down for the Badgers. Yet Wisconsin had a pretty good decade on the field.
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There is some early talent in 2024. Two in-state players are in the Top247, and both have Badgers scholarship offers. Waukesha Catholic Memorial offensive lineman Donovan Harbour is No. 86 overall, while Catholic Memorial running back Corey Smith is No. 177. Harbour, a four-star prospect, already has a dozen scholarship offers. Smith, another four-star player, is a dynamic talent who ran for 1,130 yards on 11.8 yards per carry and scored 18 touchdowns as a sophomore last season.
Other in-state prospects to monitor for 2024 include offensive lineman Derek Jensen and defensive lineman Jace Gilbert, both of whom play for Arrowhead, and Middleton linebacker Sam Pilof. Jensen has Big Ten offers from Illinois, Iowa and Nebraska. Gilbert has a Central Michigan offer and Pilof an Iowa State and Rutgers offer.
The talent pool for 2024 doesn’t strike me as all that different from other years in the state. And we know Wisconsin typically does an excellent job at identifying its off-the-radar in-state talent given its relationships with coaches and ability to see players in person during summer camps.
Braelon Allen. Any chance Paul Chryst uses him in excess again this season? I still believe he was more banged up than anyone wanted to admit. He simply wasn’t the same back against the Gophers (in the regular-season finale).
David E.
Allen was actually surprisingly open late in the season about the fact both of his legs had been bothering him, which was evident when he would limp off the field during different stretches of games. And Chryst acknowledged during spring practice that not having Chez Mellusi or Isaac Guerendo, both of whom suffered season-ending leg injuries, “wore on” Allen.
Both Allen and Wisconsin were in difficult spots for the stretch run because the Badgers lacked depth at running back. Allen also performed so well that it was tough to take him out of most games. Remember that Allen carried 47 times for 401 yards and six touchdowns in victories against Northwestern and Nebraska. He certainly didn’t look like himself against Minnesota, when he carried 17 times for 47 yards. But I don’t think anyone was hiding the fact that Allen was banged up. He then came back for the bowl game and ran 29 times for 159 yards to earn most valuable player honors.
Coaches recognize how valuable Allen is to the success of the team, and that’s precisely why I think they’ll be very diligent in how they use him next season. I remember talking to former Badgers running backs coach John Settle about Jonathan Taylor before the 2019 season. The goal going into that year was to figure out how to get Taylor more catches in space so he could continue to make a big impact without absorbing huge contact in the hole. Taylor ultimately caught a career-best 26 passes for 252 yards with five touchdowns. Of course, he still ran the ball a monstrous 320 times, but using Taylor as a pass catcher opened up new possibilities.
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Allen is working to improve his pass-catching ability for his sophomore season and should be more effective there. The key will be whether Mellusi or Gurendo or both will be healthy enough to take some of the load off Allen. Julius Davis is another option at the position. Mellusi said he expects to be ready in time for the season opener, which will go a long way toward helping Allen. I’ll leave you with a quote from new running backs coach Al Johnson during spring practice that highlights how careful coaches want to be in making sure Allen can have success.
“There’s moments where it feels like dad let you take the Lamborghini out and you don’t want to crash that baby,” Johnson said. “But at the end of the day, the best part of working with him is the fact that he always wants to be great. He wants to push himself. He wants to get better. He wants to find the things that can keep moving him forward and keep elevating his game.”
(Top photo of Graham Mertz: Dan Sanger / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
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